Excel Intrinsic Value

The Similarities Between Poker and Value Investing

Anyone who watches the World Series of Poker Scotty Nguyen is familiar with, it is one of the former champions who loves ESPN function when they cover the various World Series of Poker. Several years ago he was a virtual lock at the final table of ten players in the version of the Main Event of the Breeders Cup Classic. Suddenly and inexplicably, he suffered a huge crisis after having been among the chip leaders under 20 players playing in the tournament, many of which were short stack (low on chips).Nguyen started to penetrate many all-in, head to head duels with other players and he continued to be on the short end of the duals. With astonishing speed, he ended up squandering its prey whole chip itself and the elimination of competition, to the amazement of the crowd. A shocking development given its strong sense of poker; such a merger would not be expected veteran and former champion. If he had simply sat "cold", he would have entered the final table as one of the leading chip and the likely favorite, instead he has never given the chance himself.In essence, Nugyen involuntarily moved from a "player value" to a day trader as a direct result of uncontrolled emotional reaction. What happened to Nugyen events on a recurring basis to investors / traders on Wall Street to Main Street America. When investing, a surge of emotion associated with a temporary lack of coolness can destroy years of good work in a few months or even days. Only one of the many analogies between poker tournaments and value investing. All successful poker players understand the concept of underlying value and how it relates to the particular hand.Every single decision is based on a sense of risk vs. reward is determined by multiple factors. It is not only the maps that are estimated to determine the overall risk reward scenario cons; subtle factors such as the table position or skill levels and the psychological makeup of the competition directly affects the value of hole cards one to one particular hand. It is a version of the pokers qualitative vs. quantitative. Investors are faced with the same type of questions.Stock screens and fundamental analysis to provide quantitative data for value investors, but these data often provide a false reading of the underlying value of a company. Trailing data is just that, he tells us what happened in the past.

Free Discounted Cash Flow DCF Valuation Spreadsheet - How to invest

Hey Jae,

Awesome job with the blog. It is really great–mostly the spreadsheets–now if only you could help me get them to work–I am having the hardest time getting the add-ins to work. I thought I managed but then I put in a symbol ODP and I got a bunch of #NAME! things to come up on the statements tab of the Valuation Spreadsheet…Please help. Thanks.

Hi Jae,

This spreadsheet is very nice looking and I was excited to see it for JNJ. However, it seems to freeze when I put in another stock symbol to get information. I have a fast internet connection, so I don’t think that’s the issue. Could it be the Morningstar site, or is there something wrong with the sheet, or does it simply take a long time in general?

Thanks

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Hi Aurelien,

The spreadsheet freezes because it has to access the Morningstar database and then run the commands on each cell to pull the commands.

Although Morningstar loads quickly in a web browser, the excel sheet has to request the information from Morningstar for every cell. Basically it’s asking the same thing about 200 times.

That’s the cause for the delay. If you look in the bottom right corner, it will tell you the % complete.

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* Calculation time will vary based on internet speed, computer speed, software version and hardware configuration. The material from Old School Value, this spreadsheet or any affiliate sites have no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any visitor. Information, tools and articles published are solely for informational purposes and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. References made to third parties are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Visitors should not regard it as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and Old School Value or affiliated sites or authors are not under any obligation to update or maintain the information contained in this document. Old School Value, officers, partners or customers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of all entities of the old school value or Old School Value Stock Valuation spreadsheets referred to herein. Old School Value assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind resulting from the use of all or part of the old school value or one tool containing the name of Old School Value. Our comments are an expression of opinion. While we believe our statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of our own credible sources.

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